da dobrowin： Group E still holds plenty of interesting possibilities: South Africa, New Zealand and India all have a chance of making it to the semi-finals, but none of them have secured a place in the last four yet
S Rajesh in Durban20-Sep-2007
Graeme Smith will have one eye on the net run rate, lest a heavy defeat against India allows New Zealand to slip into the semis through the back door © Getty Images
There’s just one match to go in the Super Eights stage of the WorldTwenty20 Cup, but Group E still holds plenty of interesting possibilities:South Africa, New Zealand and India all have a chance of making it to thesemi-finals, but none of them have secured a place in the last four yet.With two wins in their first two games, it seemed New Zealand might haveassured themselves of an early entry into the semis, but their two winswere both by very narrow margins, which gives them a net run rate which isvery narrowly positive: +0.05. Both South Africa and Indiahave a higher NRR than that, which means that India – who are currentlytwo points behind New Zealand and South Africa – only need to win, by anymargin, to make it to the semis. South Africa can get there even if theylose to India, but the margin of defeat has to be narrow enough to ensuretheir NRR doesn’t slip below 0.05.For example, if India bat first and score 170, South Africa will have toscore at least 143 to ensure their NRR is better than New Zealand’s, whowill then miss out on the last four. If South Africa bat first and score170, India will have to chase it down in less than 16.4 overs to eliminateSouth Africa from the tournament.Of course South Africa can avoid all the arithmetic if they beat India,in which case they will top the group and stay in Durban for thesemi-final on Saturday. And there’s no question about who New Zealand willbe supporting in this game: all they need to make the cut is for SouthAfrica to beat India and push them out of the tournament.